The Hottest of F1 Hot Seats for Vergne

Bahrain’s fourth round of the 2013 Formula One World Championship already sees several teams and drivers on the proverbial hot seat. McLaren has woefully underperformed for a team very much used to contending for race wins and championships, in part to the struggles of Sergio Perez; of course, perhaps Perez has struggled in large part to the recalcitrant McLaren chassis. Romain Grosjean has been roundly outperformed by Lotus teammate Kimi Räikönen. Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde’s rookie season now has the long shadow of new reserve driver Heiki Kovalainen looming over it. But, the hottest of seats may well be at Toro Rosso, under the rear of driver Jean-Éric Vergne. 

There’s a lot to race for at Toro Rosso, as it’s the de facto junior team of F1 powerhouse Red Bull, and – news flash! – Red Bull might have an open seat for2014. And, while Räikönen will have something to say about filling that potential front-of-the-field vacancy, Toro Rosso drivers Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo clearly have a large carrot dangling in front of them. Moreover, there is also Toro Rosso’s infamous lack of patience with young drivers – you either prove yourself and do so quickly, or you’ll be moved over for the next young hot shoe. Just ask Scott Speed, Sébastien Bourdais, Sébastien Buemi, Jaime Alguersauri, and others.

In his second season in F1, this much is clear:  Vergne is slower than his teammate Ricciardo. Last season, Ricciardo outqualifiedVergne in 15 of the 20 races, with an average starting position of 14.7 versus 16.7. This year, Ricciardo is again on top, faster in 3 of the 4 qualifying sessions thus far.

Vergne’s saving grace, at least thus far, has been in earning points. In 2012, Vergne outscored his teammate 16-10, the beneficiary of four 8^th place finishes. However, while lower in total points, Ricciardo showed better overall competitiveness and consistency, finishing six total races in points paying positions.

This year, Ricciardo has upped his game, finishing a career-high 7^th in last week’s Chinese Grand Prix, and performing as befitting his pre-season comments stating his goal is to outrace his teammate and earn a drive at Red Bull. Under pressure, Vergne’s response in the face of increased competition has been just a single point.

Toro Rosso has its drivers on a short leash, and it is certain team management is debating whether Vergne is better racer than current reserve, and former driver, Buemi. Buemi has experience with the organization, can assist in the development of the car, and has the experience and track knowledge to be at least as competitive as Vergne on the grid.

Come Monday, F1 teams will have 20% of the season in its rearview mirrors and will begin the European campaign of the 2013 season. If Vergne’s performance doesn’t pick up and pick up quick, he might not be around to enjoy much of the homecoming.

Trying some overtaking on Twitter @RayHartjen. 

Not tired of tires - yet

Some race fans, not to mention drivers, race team management, and other race personnel, bemoan the impact of tire strategy and its importance over the course of the race weekend. Instead of managing a sometimes wildly speculative variable, they prefer to run flat out, non-stop. We hear you, Michael Schumacher. However, as fans, we’ve seen that before, and the result is a team-by-team, single file procession around the race track, an affair that quickly becomes mind-numbingly boring.

I, and I doubt I am alone, am looking forward to this weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix, round three of the 2013 Formula 1 World Championship. After three rounds of practice and three rounds of qualifying, one thing is abundantly clear:  this race will be entirely about tire management.

Pirelli has brought the medium and soft compounds to Shanghai this week, and as usual there is a performance gap between the two compounds of a little over a second per lap – the softs offer more grip and are therefore quicker. However, that pace comes with a price, as thermal degradation of the soft tires see them fall off quickly, with lap times soaring upwards as quickly as the tires wear out. Teams are seeing performance tail off abruptly after only a few laps.

Formula 1 sporting regulations require competitors to start the race on the tires they qualified with on their fastest lap. Q3 on Saturday saw the Red Bull of defending three-time world champion Sebastian Vettel and the McLaren of former world champion Jenson Button take a gamble and elect not go gunning for pole on the softs, the strategy taken by the rest of their competitors. Rather, they went out on the much more durable tires. The result is Button will start 8^th and Vettel 9^th, but they will both be on medium tires. Pole sitter Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes and the rest of the top seven qualifiers will start on the soft tires, requiring pits stops as early as lap 5 or 6. This brings the race right into the hands of Button, Vettel, and to a lesser extent, Sauber’s Nico Hülkenberg, starting 10^th, also on medium tires.

Rest assured, computers up and down the pit lane are buzzing and working overtime running scenario simulations, with teams working feverishly to devise a strategy that gets them to the end of the 56 lap race distance in the shortest cumulative time possible. Will starting on medium tires bring the race to Button and Vettel? At first, yes. If they get past the first few corners – always a threat for the mid-pack on the first lap – they will lead the first half of the race. The bad news, of course, is this tire strategy gamble developed for a reason – both the McLaren and the Red Bull are not quite at the pace around Shanghai as the Mercedes, Ferraris and Lotuses.

How will the race pan out? I don’t know. But, I can tell you, I can hardly wait to find out.

Catch a flying lap on Twitter @RayHartjen

Malaysia’s big winner … Daniel Ricciardo?

The big winner in this weekend’s second round of the 2013 Formula 1 season wasn’t race winner Sebastian Vettel or even the resurgent Mercedes, resplendent as they were in a validating 3^rd and 4^th position. Rather, the big winner in Malaysia just might have been Australia’s Daniel Ricciardo, who finished 18^th, retiring his Toro Rosso after 51 laps. 

 Come again?

A rather lively Malaysian Grand Prix became even more riveting after the final pit stops as the 1^st and 2^nd place Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel, along with the 3^rd and 4^th place Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, were ordered by team leadership to conserve both fuel and tires and ensure the cars made it to the finish with maximum points toward the ever important Constructors’ World Championship. The dutiful soldiers Webber, Hamilton and Rosberg obeyed. Vettel did not, racing Webber, taking the position, and driving off to victory.

One need not make a career of observing human behavior to recognize Webber was incensed at his teammate’s autonomously made decision to rebuke team orders. On the post-race podium, after ignoring Vettel in the celebratory spraying of the Moet champagne, Webber even went so far as to suggest Vettel would be “protected as usual,” a reference to Vettel’s preferred standing in the team.

Red Bull certainly gives Webber his best chance at Formula 1 victories, but not his only chance. As he will never usurp wunderkind Vettel as the team’s number one driver, and as assuredly the team will not voluntarily depart ways with the defending 3-time World Champion and 27 race winner Vettel, Webber is racing for racing sake and the opportunity for ever-so-difficult-to-come by F1 race victories, and with nary a realistic thought of winning a World Championship.

With an already tense and somewhat fractious relationship between Webber and Vettel, Malaysia may very well have been the final straw, the one that broke the camel’s back. With a one year contract, Webber is most likely gone at the conclusion of the current season, either through his own impetus or with a gentle push from the team. With a departure by Webber, a seat at Red Bull, the defending 3-time Constructors’ World Champion becomes available.

All that supposition brings us to Ricciardo, one of two drivers (along with Jean-Éric Vergne) of Toro Rosso, Red Bull’s de facto “junior team.” Ricciardo has made no secret of his ambitions for 2013:  Outrace teammate Vergne and secure a ride with Red Bull for 2014. Malaysia’s intra-team fireworks gives him the opening to squeeze into.

It’s now up to Ricciardo, a driver who routinely outpaces his teammate Vergne in qualifying, to press to the most of his abilities. At stake is a ride in a car fully capable of race wins and championships. Granted, 2014 brings new technical specifications for the teams, perhaps leveling the field. But with the wizardry of Adrian Newey being sketched on the whiteboard, is there a team better positioned for success than Red Bull?

Three cheers to this weekend’s podium finishers, Vettel, Webber and Hamilton. But, save the biggest cheer for perhaps the weekend’s big winner, 18^th place Daniel Ricciardo.   

Rub wheels on Twitter @RayHartjen

An Rx for IndyCar’s Ills

Today, Will Power won his fourth consecutive pole for the St. Petersburg Grand Prix, the annual opener of the IndyCar season, which beckons the philosophical question, “If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” Just 20 years ago, IndyCar, then known as CART, was the premier motorsports series in the world, and that included the global circus of Formula One. Now, thanks to a divisive split engineered by Tony George, IndyCar once again starts a season awash in a sea of irrelevance. It’s a long race back to the top, but the prescription for IndyCar can be really simple.

It’s TV, stupid

Perhaps no sport is as much a live spectacle as motorsports – the sights, sounds and even smells bring the event to a roaring life, and most every fan who goes to a race becomes a fan for life. Simply, there’s no sporting event like a day at the racetrack.

However, IndyCar won’t grow racing to fans at the track alone. Success is dependent on TV for two purposes: 1) selling the sport to fans who have yet to attend a race in person, and 2) bringing in sponsors and their marketing dollars, the funds of which are crucial for all motorsports, as funding equals speed, in turn equaling competitiveness. 

Key for IndyCar is finding one single network family for its series, and a network that can broadcast not only the race, but qualifying sessions and perhaps even practices. Currently, fans have to jump between NBC and ABC to find IndyCar. In this era of nearly countless entertainment options, if it’s not easy, it’s often ignored. The IndyCar brand can only grow with a partnered affiliation with its broadcaster.

Variety is the spice of life

IndyCar is essentially a formula-spec series, with a single chassis for all teams, the status quo for the last several years. Car development, and hence differentiation by teams, have been limited pretty much to shock absorbers and mirrors.

I nearly fell asleep writing that sentence.

The introduction of Chevrolet engines last year, to battle alongside long-time series runner Honda, was a start. Differentiation means unequal cars, and unequal cars means overtaking on the track, good for those in attendance, and great for those watching on television.

 IndyCar needs to develop technical specifications and invite constructors to design and build chasses to a set of common rules. The heyday of CART saw three chassis builders and multiple engines, allowing for a variety of “mix and match” possibilities, with competitiveness up and down the field, and storylines carried throughout the season.

Close the gap

With nearly six months from the last race of 2012 to the first race of 2013, any momentum created last year has disappeared quicker than a scheduled pit stop. NASCAR only takes a three month break and benefits by opening its season with its crown jewel, the Daytona 500. Formula one likewise takes a three month break, but is buoyed by an off-season of constructor and car development news, along with three organized, multi-day test sessions.

IndyCar needs to both close the gap between one season and the other and create a reason for news to hit, much like player trades and drafts in other sports. One is easier than the other, of course, and running the last race in October and the first in February would be a good first step.

A new track experience

IndyCar can learn a lesson from the NHRA drag racing series, the motorsports series with perhaps the most loyal fan base. The secret? Everyone at an NHRA event can walk through the paddock and watch the crews prepare the cars and motorcycles.

A long-standing tradition in most motor sports series is the prevalence of “knucklers,” those fans holding onto a chain link fence, their knuckles on the other side, peeking at a part of the race where they desperately want to be. 

It’s not realistic for every fan to be able to walk through the garage on race day, but walkabouts on Friday of race weekend, and even Saturday after qualifications, would give fans a more complete experience and an opportunity to rub elbows with their heroes, much less post awesome photos to Facebook and other social sites. It’s all about growing the sport.

A big deal

The Indianapolis 500 is the crown jewel of the series, although it’s popularity has also waned over the past two decades. This year, more superspeedways return to the race calendar. Like the horses do, IndyCar and its horsepower should create a “triple crown” or “grand slam,” and offer up a staggering monetary award for anyone who can sweep all the races, like $5 million, and lesser amount for the driver who scores the most accumulated points in the select races, say $1 million. It’s a storyline that covers multiple months, garnering attention for a sport and series that much needs it.

So, there you have it, a short five-step prescription to fix the ills of IndyCar. Time is short in the sports universe, and the time to move fast, like the cars, is now.

Run hot laps on Twitter @RayHartjen

F1 Mid-Fielders Turn to Malaysia for Answers

In the final year of a relatively stable rules package for Formula 1 constructors, pressure is on the mid-field to catch up with the front runners, the rationale being time affords teams to develop when tighter financial resources hamper initial development. At the end of this season, time runs out on the old car and big financial resources will help the front runners with the new chassis.

Last week’s season opener in Melbourne saw the mid-field in many story lines. This week’s second round will go a long way in telling a more complete story, either validating first impressions or turning them on their heels.

Maybe, but not quite yet

Force India and driver Adrian Sutil were somewhat the revelation of the Australia Grand Prix, holding the lead for a number of laps and finishing in a solid 7^th position, one place in front of Paul Di Resta in the second Force India. Race results suggest a possible breakthrough to the top of the mid-field, and maybe even a latching onto the bottom of the front-running cars.

Not so fast.

Sutil started the Melbourne race on the harder, more durable “medium” Pirelli tire and greatly benefited from a longer first stint before pitting. As front running teams come to grips with, well, grip, and the durability of the Pirelli rubber, those types of good fortunes are likely to be much harder to stumble upon. Perhaps a truer test of the Force India’s capabilities lies in the outright pace of the car in qualifying. Di Resta managed to break into Q3 for the first time in a long while, while Sutil managed 12^th in his first race weekend in 15 months.

Melbourne was a solid start for the Force India team and final positions were certainly earned on merit. Malaysia’s second round will provide observers more data on whether the team’s start was as best as it’s going to get in 2013.

Needing a U-turn

Pastor Maldonado spent the season’s first weekend talking about how his Williams chassis was “undriveable.” That’s quite a statement coming from a driver whose sponsorship funding is considered by many in the F1 paddock as his most serviceable skill.

Williams had a very decent car early in 2012 and Maldonado provided a long overdue victory for the team with his magical win at Barcelona in early May. From then on, though, the rest of the season was pretty dismal, with then Williams driver Bruno Senna most often outperforming the often crashing Maldonado.

Maldonado’s race in Melbourne ended in the gravel trap after Maldonado spun in first corner, a fitting end considering the car’s performance in the first 34 laps. Despite showing promise in pre-season testing, Williams managed only 16^th and 17^th in qualifying and a 14^th place race finish by rookie Valtteri Bottas. Malaysia is the team’s first chance to turn it around and will go a long way in determining the prospects for 2013.

To start, you have to … start

Sauber got off to the shakiest of all possible starts when lead driver Nico Hülkenberg had his car withdrawn before the race’s start due to fuel system issues, spoiling an 11^th place qualifying position. Rookie teammate Esteban Gutiérrez improved upon his 18^th place in qualifying to finish the race in 13^th.

The Sauber car has garnered a reputation over the past two seasons as being very kind on its Pirelli race tires, and if ever an opportunity was squandered, last weekend’s tire management-plagued Australian Grand Prix was it. Having team leader Hülkenberg, one of the top young drivers in the sport, on the track is critical for this team to succeed. Mistakes like last weekend have to stop. Now.

A second chance to make a first impression

With teams going directly from Australia to Malaysia, most developmental upgrades will wait until next month’s third round. As such, this weekend provides the second of back-to-back opportunities for teams, and observers, to evaluate car and driver prospects for 2013. There are many races in F1 and sometimes the closest and most compelling happen away from the sharp end of the field. The mid-field looks to Malaysia to confirm or rebut the season’s first impressions, with some teams looking for a change while others look for more of the same.

Run laps on Twitter @RayHartjen

Lessons learned from the Daytona 500

Sunday afternoon, Jimmie Johnson won his second Daytona 500, this one a relatively boring single-file, follow-the-leader affair punctuated by two multi-car accidents and 1,489 on-air Danica Patrick references. As the series moves to its second round in Phoenix, the following is what we learned from Daytona:

The first 2/3rds of the race are still there to get to the last 1/3

The 500 was way too much fizzle, not enough sizzle, and maybe with what happened at the endof Saturday’s Nationwide race, that was okay. Still, the lack of moves made the race almost unwatchable. The fact it was the first race of the year and the Daytona 500 – about as exciting as it gets - made it just barely bearable. But, what happens when the series moves to Phoenix?

NASCAR can tend to be a repetitive, monotonous left-turn affair, particularly with so many 1.5-mile ovals on the schedule. On TV, it’s frequently difficult to discern where the race is actually taking place. The good news is Phoenix is decidedly different, both in track layout and in how the cars will be configured.

The new generation cars will run a rear spoiler twice the size as the ones run at Daytona and, of course, be freed of the restrictor plate. Look for cars to be more responsive, and with the draft minimalized, it will be more rewarding for drivers to dip out of the top line and run low in the corners to argue positions.

Still, the first half isn’t as much about the racing as it is biding time. For the drivers, it’s to stay on the lead lap; for the viewer, it’s time to make sure you’re fed and well rested for when the racing gets serious toward the end.

New cars or not, the field is deep

NASCAR’s new generation of cars bring distinct shapes back to each car manufacturer, something fans wanted to see. With different aerodynamic shapes, there’s always fear that one car will outperform another. Daytona saw each marque spend time up front looking like the car to beat.

The field is deep. At every race this year, there will be at least 20 cars out of the 43 car field that will be strong, realistic contenders for the win. But, did you notice the final results of the Daytona 500? Reagan Smith finished 7^th, Michael McDowell finished 9^th, and J.J. Yeley finished 10^th – all underfunded underdogs in the garage, yet top ten finishers in the sport’s biggest race.

New cars mean most teams are together at this point in the learning curve. In time, the best organizations with the biggest resources will make their way to the top. In the meantime, look for the mid-level teams to sneak into high finishing positions. They might not win, but they will be taking points away from contenders for the season championship, a story you’ll see plenty of as the season progresses.

Danica Patrick will receive the majority of media attention this year.

Danica Patrick won’t simply receive more media attention than any other driver, rather she will receive more media attention this season than all the other drivers. Combined. Together.

Patrick has always been a media darling, no small part to her good looks, which thus far in her career has far exceeded the results she has delivered on track – without some victories, she’s in danger of becoming racing’s version of Anna Kournikova. This year, Patrick seems more comfortable in front of media and the fans, and her performance at Daytona showed when she’s comfortable, she can produce.

Unfortunately, she’s not going to be comfortable at most tracks. Patrick has always shined at the biggest, most storied tracks in the series she has raced – Indianapolis and Daytona. At both places, she excels, as she’s most comfortable running flat out and breathing the throttle to adjust her pace.

Where Patrick has struggled in her career is braking and rolling back on the throttle. Look for her to be mid-pack in most races that are contested at tracks other than Daytona or Talladega. Regardless, you’ll still hear about where she is, no matter where she is. Just like you will always know who is in the lead, all year you will know where Patrick is running.

You might not hear “Paul Menard is running in 21st,” but you’ll certain hear “Dana Patrick is running 22nd.”

Run hot laps on Twitter @RayHartjen

4 things to watch for in Sunday’s Daytona 500

With the off-season now in the books, NASCAR kicks off its 2013 season this Sunday with its crown jewel, the Daytona 500. I know what you’re thinking:  “There was an off-season?”

Oh yes, the longest season of any professional sport enjoyed a three month break, and engines have been piercing the quiet now for almost a week as crews have been getting new generation cars ready for the biggest stock car race of them all. As you ready yourself, here are four things to watch for in Sunday’s race.

Expect to hear “Danica” as often as you hear “Daytona.”

As if the media firestorm that is Danica Patrick needed any further fuel, Patrick’s performance on Sunday in winning the pole position for the race only fanned the flames. Becoming the first woman to qualify fastest in NASCAR’s premier series, Patrick ensured she’ll be the focus of most pre-race discussion, as if she wasn’t already one of the leading storylines going into the event.

Patrick’ best finish in NASCAR Sprint Cup is 17^th, and she has only a single top-five finish in 58 starts in NASCAR’s second-tier Nationwide Series. Coupled with just a single race victory in any motorsports series in well over a decade, you can expect Patrick’s performance to fall well short of her hype.

In the restrictor plate era, the fastest car alone on the track, as Cup cars qualify, ordinarily isn’t the fastest car in a pack, as Cup cars race. Look for Patrick’s relative lack of experience to keep her just out of Victory Lane.

The Pack Is Back

Rules packages the past two seasons have seen restrictor plate races – Daytona and Talladega – devolve into two car do-se-do’s, with pairs hooking up in tandem, nose-to-tail,  and logging lap after lap in a manner that most race fans tired of quickly. This year dawns a new car design, and while crews and drivers are struggling to unlock all the secrets of the car, this they have already figured out:  the fastest way around the track is in a pack, not a pair.

While the cars have changed, two things haven’t:  the best teams are the best teams and the best drivers are the best drivers. Look for two packs to form. A large pack of 25 or so contenders will race nose-to-tail, side by side, two-wide, at the front of the field, with an occasional try at  three-wide coming through Turn Two and onto the backstretch. A few seconds behind the first pack, you’ll see the second bunch, made up of cars struggling for handling and pace, as well as the conservative contender looking to stay out of …

The Inevitable “Big One”

The “Big One” is the nickname given by the racing community – racers and fans alike – to the huge multi-car wrecks that happen with regularity at high speed, restrictor plate ovals like Daytona. For the 500, there’s the extra ingredient of aggressive greed. Second at Daytona is really first loser, and no driver will be looking for points toward the championship knowing there is ample time to make up and lost ground after just one race (see longest professional sport season, above).

Rather, drivers would gladly trade a Sprint Cup series championship for a Daytona 500 victory. Pack racing plus aggressive, go-for-broke driving usually equals a “big one.” Look for several contending cars to be sidelined as nothing more than steaming, crumpled wrecks well before the final ten laps. Then, don’t be surprised if there’s another “big one” the final ten laps.

Smoke Rises to the Top

Tony Stewart is second in the all-time Daytona wins list with 18 victories at the historic track, trailing only the legendary Dale Earnhardt. However, none of Stewart’s victories have taken place in the big Sunday race, the Daytona 500. In his 14 years racing in Sprint Cup, Stewart has 47 wins (in 500 starts) and three Cup championships, along with another 12 combined victories in the Nationwide and Truck series. Simply, “Smoke” is due. Look for Stewart to win the race or cause the “big one” trying.

See you at the track.

Take the race on a Sunday drive on Twitter @RayHartjen.