4 things to watch for in Sunday’s Daytona 500

With the off-season now in the books, NASCAR kicks off its 2013 season this Sunday with its crown jewel, the Daytona 500. I know what you’re thinking:  “There was an off-season?”

Oh yes, the longest season of any professional sport enjoyed a three month break, and engines have been piercing the quiet now for almost a week as crews have been getting new generation cars ready for the biggest stock car race of them all. As you ready yourself, here are four things to watch for in Sunday’s race.

Expect to hear “Danica” as often as you hear “Daytona.”

As if the media firestorm that is Danica Patrick needed any further fuel, Patrick’s performance on Sunday in winning the pole position for the race only fanned the flames. Becoming the first woman to qualify fastest in NASCAR’s premier series, Patrick ensured she’ll be the focus of most pre-race discussion, as if she wasn’t already one of the leading storylines going into the event.

Patrick’ best finish in NASCAR Sprint Cup is 17^th, and she has only a single top-five finish in 58 starts in NASCAR’s second-tier Nationwide Series. Coupled with just a single race victory in any motorsports series in well over a decade, you can expect Patrick’s performance to fall well short of her hype.

In the restrictor plate era, the fastest car alone on the track, as Cup cars qualify, ordinarily isn’t the fastest car in a pack, as Cup cars race. Look for Patrick’s relative lack of experience to keep her just out of Victory Lane.

The Pack Is Back

Rules packages the past two seasons have seen restrictor plate races – Daytona and Talladega – devolve into two car do-se-do’s, with pairs hooking up in tandem, nose-to-tail,  and logging lap after lap in a manner that most race fans tired of quickly. This year dawns a new car design, and while crews and drivers are struggling to unlock all the secrets of the car, this they have already figured out:  the fastest way around the track is in a pack, not a pair.

While the cars have changed, two things haven’t:  the best teams are the best teams and the best drivers are the best drivers. Look for two packs to form. A large pack of 25 or so contenders will race nose-to-tail, side by side, two-wide, at the front of the field, with an occasional try at  three-wide coming through Turn Two and onto the backstretch. A few seconds behind the first pack, you’ll see the second bunch, made up of cars struggling for handling and pace, as well as the conservative contender looking to stay out of …

The Inevitable “Big One”

The “Big One” is the nickname given by the racing community – racers and fans alike – to the huge multi-car wrecks that happen with regularity at high speed, restrictor plate ovals like Daytona. For the 500, there’s the extra ingredient of aggressive greed. Second at Daytona is really first loser, and no driver will be looking for points toward the championship knowing there is ample time to make up and lost ground after just one race (see longest professional sport season, above).

Rather, drivers would gladly trade a Sprint Cup series championship for a Daytona 500 victory. Pack racing plus aggressive, go-for-broke driving usually equals a “big one.” Look for several contending cars to be sidelined as nothing more than steaming, crumpled wrecks well before the final ten laps. Then, don’t be surprised if there’s another “big one” the final ten laps.

Smoke Rises to the Top

Tony Stewart is second in the all-time Daytona wins list with 18 victories at the historic track, trailing only the legendary Dale Earnhardt. However, none of Stewart’s victories have taken place in the big Sunday race, the Daytona 500. In his 14 years racing in Sprint Cup, Stewart has 47 wins (in 500 starts) and three Cup championships, along with another 12 combined victories in the Nationwide and Truck series. Simply, “Smoke” is due. Look for Stewart to win the race or cause the “big one” trying.

See you at the track.

Take the race on a Sunday drive on Twitter @RayHartjen.