The Hottest of F1 Hot Seats for Vergne

Bahrain’s fourth round of the 2013 Formula One World Championship already sees several teams and drivers on the proverbial hot seat. McLaren has woefully underperformed for a team very much used to contending for race wins and championships, in part to the struggles of Sergio Perez; of course, perhaps Perez has struggled in large part to the recalcitrant McLaren chassis. Romain Grosjean has been roundly outperformed by Lotus teammate Kimi Räikönen. Caterham driver Giedo van der Garde’s rookie season now has the long shadow of new reserve driver Heiki Kovalainen looming over it. But, the hottest of seats may well be at Toro Rosso, under the rear of driver Jean-Éric Vergne. 

There’s a lot to race for at Toro Rosso, as it’s the de facto junior team of F1 powerhouse Red Bull, and – news flash! – Red Bull might have an open seat for2014. And, while Räikönen will have something to say about filling that potential front-of-the-field vacancy, Toro Rosso drivers Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo clearly have a large carrot dangling in front of them. Moreover, there is also Toro Rosso’s infamous lack of patience with young drivers – you either prove yourself and do so quickly, or you’ll be moved over for the next young hot shoe. Just ask Scott Speed, Sébastien Bourdais, Sébastien Buemi, Jaime Alguersauri, and others.

In his second season in F1, this much is clear:  Vergne is slower than his teammate Ricciardo. Last season, Ricciardo outqualifiedVergne in 15 of the 20 races, with an average starting position of 14.7 versus 16.7. This year, Ricciardo is again on top, faster in 3 of the 4 qualifying sessions thus far.

Vergne’s saving grace, at least thus far, has been in earning points. In 2012, Vergne outscored his teammate 16-10, the beneficiary of four 8^th place finishes. However, while lower in total points, Ricciardo showed better overall competitiveness and consistency, finishing six total races in points paying positions.

This year, Ricciardo has upped his game, finishing a career-high 7^th in last week’s Chinese Grand Prix, and performing as befitting his pre-season comments stating his goal is to outrace his teammate and earn a drive at Red Bull. Under pressure, Vergne’s response in the face of increased competition has been just a single point.

Toro Rosso has its drivers on a short leash, and it is certain team management is debating whether Vergne is better racer than current reserve, and former driver, Buemi. Buemi has experience with the organization, can assist in the development of the car, and has the experience and track knowledge to be at least as competitive as Vergne on the grid.

Come Monday, F1 teams will have 20% of the season in its rearview mirrors and will begin the European campaign of the 2013 season. If Vergne’s performance doesn’t pick up and pick up quick, he might not be around to enjoy much of the homecoming.

Trying some overtaking on Twitter @RayHartjen. 

Not tired of tires - yet

Some race fans, not to mention drivers, race team management, and other race personnel, bemoan the impact of tire strategy and its importance over the course of the race weekend. Instead of managing a sometimes wildly speculative variable, they prefer to run flat out, non-stop. We hear you, Michael Schumacher. However, as fans, we’ve seen that before, and the result is a team-by-team, single file procession around the race track, an affair that quickly becomes mind-numbingly boring.

I, and I doubt I am alone, am looking forward to this weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix, round three of the 2013 Formula 1 World Championship. After three rounds of practice and three rounds of qualifying, one thing is abundantly clear:  this race will be entirely about tire management.

Pirelli has brought the medium and soft compounds to Shanghai this week, and as usual there is a performance gap between the two compounds of a little over a second per lap – the softs offer more grip and are therefore quicker. However, that pace comes with a price, as thermal degradation of the soft tires see them fall off quickly, with lap times soaring upwards as quickly as the tires wear out. Teams are seeing performance tail off abruptly after only a few laps.

Formula 1 sporting regulations require competitors to start the race on the tires they qualified with on their fastest lap. Q3 on Saturday saw the Red Bull of defending three-time world champion Sebastian Vettel and the McLaren of former world champion Jenson Button take a gamble and elect not go gunning for pole on the softs, the strategy taken by the rest of their competitors. Rather, they went out on the much more durable tires. The result is Button will start 8^th and Vettel 9^th, but they will both be on medium tires. Pole sitter Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes and the rest of the top seven qualifiers will start on the soft tires, requiring pits stops as early as lap 5 or 6. This brings the race right into the hands of Button, Vettel, and to a lesser extent, Sauber’s Nico Hülkenberg, starting 10^th, also on medium tires.

Rest assured, computers up and down the pit lane are buzzing and working overtime running scenario simulations, with teams working feverishly to devise a strategy that gets them to the end of the 56 lap race distance in the shortest cumulative time possible. Will starting on medium tires bring the race to Button and Vettel? At first, yes. If they get past the first few corners – always a threat for the mid-pack on the first lap – they will lead the first half of the race. The bad news, of course, is this tire strategy gamble developed for a reason – both the McLaren and the Red Bull are not quite at the pace around Shanghai as the Mercedes, Ferraris and Lotuses.

How will the race pan out? I don’t know. But, I can tell you, I can hardly wait to find out.

Catch a flying lap on Twitter @RayHartjen