Lessons learned from the Daytona 500

Sunday afternoon, Jimmie Johnson won his second Daytona 500, this one a relatively boring single-file, follow-the-leader affair punctuated by two multi-car accidents and 1,489 on-air Danica Patrick references. As the series moves to its second round in Phoenix, the following is what we learned from Daytona:

The first 2/3rds of the race are still there to get to the last 1/3

The 500 was way too much fizzle, not enough sizzle, and maybe with what happened at the endof Saturday’s Nationwide race, that was okay. Still, the lack of moves made the race almost unwatchable. The fact it was the first race of the year and the Daytona 500 – about as exciting as it gets - made it just barely bearable. But, what happens when the series moves to Phoenix?

NASCAR can tend to be a repetitive, monotonous left-turn affair, particularly with so many 1.5-mile ovals on the schedule. On TV, it’s frequently difficult to discern where the race is actually taking place. The good news is Phoenix is decidedly different, both in track layout and in how the cars will be configured.

The new generation cars will run a rear spoiler twice the size as the ones run at Daytona and, of course, be freed of the restrictor plate. Look for cars to be more responsive, and with the draft minimalized, it will be more rewarding for drivers to dip out of the top line and run low in the corners to argue positions.

Still, the first half isn’t as much about the racing as it is biding time. For the drivers, it’s to stay on the lead lap; for the viewer, it’s time to make sure you’re fed and well rested for when the racing gets serious toward the end.

New cars or not, the field is deep

NASCAR’s new generation of cars bring distinct shapes back to each car manufacturer, something fans wanted to see. With different aerodynamic shapes, there’s always fear that one car will outperform another. Daytona saw each marque spend time up front looking like the car to beat.

The field is deep. At every race this year, there will be at least 20 cars out of the 43 car field that will be strong, realistic contenders for the win. But, did you notice the final results of the Daytona 500? Reagan Smith finished 7^th, Michael McDowell finished 9^th, and J.J. Yeley finished 10^th – all underfunded underdogs in the garage, yet top ten finishers in the sport’s biggest race.

New cars mean most teams are together at this point in the learning curve. In time, the best organizations with the biggest resources will make their way to the top. In the meantime, look for the mid-level teams to sneak into high finishing positions. They might not win, but they will be taking points away from contenders for the season championship, a story you’ll see plenty of as the season progresses.

Danica Patrick will receive the majority of media attention this year.

Danica Patrick won’t simply receive more media attention than any other driver, rather she will receive more media attention this season than all the other drivers. Combined. Together.

Patrick has always been a media darling, no small part to her good looks, which thus far in her career has far exceeded the results she has delivered on track – without some victories, she’s in danger of becoming racing’s version of Anna Kournikova. This year, Patrick seems more comfortable in front of media and the fans, and her performance at Daytona showed when she’s comfortable, she can produce.

Unfortunately, she’s not going to be comfortable at most tracks. Patrick has always shined at the biggest, most storied tracks in the series she has raced – Indianapolis and Daytona. At both places, she excels, as she’s most comfortable running flat out and breathing the throttle to adjust her pace.

Where Patrick has struggled in her career is braking and rolling back on the throttle. Look for her to be mid-pack in most races that are contested at tracks other than Daytona or Talladega. Regardless, you’ll still hear about where she is, no matter where she is. Just like you will always know who is in the lead, all year you will know where Patrick is running.

You might not hear “Paul Menard is running in 21st,” but you’ll certain hear “Dana Patrick is running 22nd.”

Run hot laps on Twitter @RayHartjen

4 things to watch for in Sunday’s Daytona 500

With the off-season now in the books, NASCAR kicks off its 2013 season this Sunday with its crown jewel, the Daytona 500. I know what you’re thinking:  “There was an off-season?”

Oh yes, the longest season of any professional sport enjoyed a three month break, and engines have been piercing the quiet now for almost a week as crews have been getting new generation cars ready for the biggest stock car race of them all. As you ready yourself, here are four things to watch for in Sunday’s race.

Expect to hear “Danica” as often as you hear “Daytona.”

As if the media firestorm that is Danica Patrick needed any further fuel, Patrick’s performance on Sunday in winning the pole position for the race only fanned the flames. Becoming the first woman to qualify fastest in NASCAR’s premier series, Patrick ensured she’ll be the focus of most pre-race discussion, as if she wasn’t already one of the leading storylines going into the event.

Patrick’ best finish in NASCAR Sprint Cup is 17^th, and she has only a single top-five finish in 58 starts in NASCAR’s second-tier Nationwide Series. Coupled with just a single race victory in any motorsports series in well over a decade, you can expect Patrick’s performance to fall well short of her hype.

In the restrictor plate era, the fastest car alone on the track, as Cup cars qualify, ordinarily isn’t the fastest car in a pack, as Cup cars race. Look for Patrick’s relative lack of experience to keep her just out of Victory Lane.

The Pack Is Back

Rules packages the past two seasons have seen restrictor plate races – Daytona and Talladega – devolve into two car do-se-do’s, with pairs hooking up in tandem, nose-to-tail,  and logging lap after lap in a manner that most race fans tired of quickly. This year dawns a new car design, and while crews and drivers are struggling to unlock all the secrets of the car, this they have already figured out:  the fastest way around the track is in a pack, not a pair.

While the cars have changed, two things haven’t:  the best teams are the best teams and the best drivers are the best drivers. Look for two packs to form. A large pack of 25 or so contenders will race nose-to-tail, side by side, two-wide, at the front of the field, with an occasional try at  three-wide coming through Turn Two and onto the backstretch. A few seconds behind the first pack, you’ll see the second bunch, made up of cars struggling for handling and pace, as well as the conservative contender looking to stay out of …

The Inevitable “Big One”

The “Big One” is the nickname given by the racing community – racers and fans alike – to the huge multi-car wrecks that happen with regularity at high speed, restrictor plate ovals like Daytona. For the 500, there’s the extra ingredient of aggressive greed. Second at Daytona is really first loser, and no driver will be looking for points toward the championship knowing there is ample time to make up and lost ground after just one race (see longest professional sport season, above).

Rather, drivers would gladly trade a Sprint Cup series championship for a Daytona 500 victory. Pack racing plus aggressive, go-for-broke driving usually equals a “big one.” Look for several contending cars to be sidelined as nothing more than steaming, crumpled wrecks well before the final ten laps. Then, don’t be surprised if there’s another “big one” the final ten laps.

Smoke Rises to the Top

Tony Stewart is second in the all-time Daytona wins list with 18 victories at the historic track, trailing only the legendary Dale Earnhardt. However, none of Stewart’s victories have taken place in the big Sunday race, the Daytona 500. In his 14 years racing in Sprint Cup, Stewart has 47 wins (in 500 starts) and three Cup championships, along with another 12 combined victories in the Nationwide and Truck series. Simply, “Smoke” is due. Look for Stewart to win the race or cause the “big one” trying.

See you at the track.

Take the race on a Sunday drive on Twitter @RayHartjen.